Our forecasts were better calibrated than that of other forecasters and prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket ...

The midterm scenario looks very different. If the polls miss as they did in 2018 and 2022, Democrats hold almost everything they lead today. Their margins in Texas and Maine actually grow to about 5 ...

A detailed look at key demographics for next week’s midterms, how they’ve changed over time, and what to look out for on ...

Our original dataset tracks Republican and Democratic endorsements across every congressional and gubernatorial race in 2026 ...

The party has gained ground in the generic ballot and several key Senate races, according to both the polls and expert ...

Following FiftyPlusOne’s investigation into suspected data fabrication by individuals claiming to work for Wedgewood Polls, today we are publishing the results of a parallel investigation into an ...

Welcome to The Trendline, the FiftyPlusOne.news weekly polling roundup. Subscribe to get it delivered straight to your inbox and get bundled access to our polling website. But we didn’t want to leave ...

Two weeks ago, President Donald Trump stood in front of a crowd of supporters at a first-of-its-kind midterms convention and beseeched the American people to “pretend I’m on the ballot.” Updated ...

FiftyPlusOne is not the polls police. However, we do, from time to time, make the tough decision to exclude a pollster from our data collection, aggregation, and forecasting when we lose faith in the ...